Overtourism Is Expected to Peak in 2024, While 95% of Destinations Remain Unexplored

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Last year, Phuket, Thailand, was the most overcrowded tourist destination. For each of the island’s 416,000 inhabitants, 118 vacationers showed up, according to a study by MoneyTransfers.com.

In 2019, environmental tracking and analysis site Murmuration noted that 80% of the world’s tourists visit only 10% of global destinations. They predicted if this trend wasn’t reversed, by 2050, tourism would have doubled energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

Has travel become a double-edged sword? On one hand, popular tourist destinations groan under the weight of traffic, transforming them into unbearably crowded spectacles. On the other, the allure of undiscovered places comes with the risk of turning them into mass tourism targets we seek to escape.

Is there a middle ground in travel that allows us to explore without exploitation, to enjoy without eroding? Are there destinations that offer the best of both worlds and manage visitors sustainably?

The Unstoppable Tourism Problem

The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) World Tourism Barometer indicates that international travel reached 88% of its pre-pandemic levels in 2023, with 1.3 billion arrivals. The UNWTO estimates that it will not only fully recover by 2024 but surpass 2019 levels by 2%.

World Economic Forum recent research analyzes the tourism industry’s impact on the global economy. With 80% of businesses in the sector being small and medium-sized enterprises, tourism accounts for 7.6% of the global GDP. The industry supports nearly 300 million jobs and contributes to 8% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

According to the UNWTO, 95% of the world’s travelers are concentrated on less than 5% of the world’s land mass, and in France, 80% of tourism activity is concentrated on 20% of the territory.

Skyscanner’s Travel Trends 2024 reports that in addition to motives like passion, adventure, and inspiration, movies and TV shows can influence travel plans. Around 29% of American vacationers reported that media influenced their itineraries. Additionally, nearly half of U.S. travelers (44%) express willingness to embark on short-haul flights to attend live shows.

Popular Destinations Grapple With Tourism Pressures

As many European countries battle overtourism, some spots are implementing policies to mitigate associated burdens. Amsterdam, along with additional measures, implemented a tourist tax of 12.5%, Europe’s highest percentage to date.

The City of Paris was the destination for more than 15 million international trips in 2023. It plans to triple its tourist tax. The city anticipates massive crowds as the 2024 Summer Olympics nears.

Travelers turn to social media to express frustration over European crowds. One user complained, “And even in more off-the-beaten-path towns, you could not escape the crowds.”

Europe is just one of many regions feeling the strain. Bali eco-lodges were always popular, but after reopening, Bali saw its international visitor numbers soar to more than five million in 2023, a staggering 144.61% increase from the previous year. To combat overtourism, Bali introduced a tourist tax in 2024.

On the other hand, countries like Bhutan enforce stringent entry measures, including a $40 USD visa application fee and a $100 Sustainable Development Fee (SDF) per adult per day (a reduction from the previous rate of $200 as of August 2023). These countries also meticulously control the number of tourists allowed entry to combat over-tourism.

There are ample examples of small towns or destinations known for their tranquility that are now facing an influx of tourists, thanks to social media influencers showcasing “hidden spots.” Residents are unhappy, saying their towns’ charm and serenity are at risk.

However, “choosing inland off-the-beaten-track locations to spend your tourism dollars can amplify the positive impact, reducing pressure on more popular destinations that struggle to manage the effects of over-tourism and providing support for small businesses that need it most.” says Holly Bland, Accessibility and Sustainability Manager at Pitchup, an international booking platform for camping, glamping, RV resorts.

A pub campground in rural Cambridgeshire, in the United Kingdom, reported, “We’ve found 50%-plus of campers spend around £100 in our bar/restaurant, and for a small country pub, that’s significant”. Another area campground said, “Local businesses, pubs, cafes, and tourist attractions, which had to close during the lockdowns, are trying to hold on by tooth and nail – relying heavily on tourism our campsite generates.”

Travelers Support Climate Action, Struggle With Application

Phocuswright’s January 2024 travel research reveals that average travelers do not fully understand sustainable travel and its elements. Vacationers fail to recognize links between overtourism and sustainability. Around 43% to 61% of travelers reported avoiding a destination in the last year due to sustainability concerns.

In a February 2024 survey, which interviewed nearly 130,000 individuals in 125 countries, 89% of respondents demanded political action to combat global warming.

However, according to the Economist Impact Survey, only 31% of policymakers believe regulating visitors’ flow can reduce tourism-related emissions.

How Visitors Can Foster Responsible Travel

Toulouse-based start-up company Murmuration promotes sustainable tourism by applying satellite data. In cooperation with Flockeo, Murmuration developed a Tourism Sustainable Development Index (TSDI). The index uses satellite data and socio-economic information to assess how the sector’s economic benefits compare to environmental harm.

“TSDI is an index developed to evaluate the evolution of destinations in terms of sustainable tourism, and thus to highlight the most sustainable countries,” says Elise Cabane, Press Relations Officer at Murmuration. “In other words, TSDI provides a kind of “nutri-score” for sustainable tourism, aiming to inform, raise awareness and emphasize on how tourism can also be a force for environmental preservation and socio-economic aspects.”

High human and tourism development scores boost a country’s TSDI score, while high environmental risks lower it. They rank countries by comparing tourism’s benefits and environmental impact.

Costa Rica, renowned as the birthplace of ecotourism and eco-lodges, ranks at No. 1, meaning travel there poses minimal environmental risk relative to the country’s socio-economic benefits. Despite occupying a mere 0.03% of Earth’s surface, Costa Rica is home to nearly 6% of the world’s biodiversity, underscoring its significant ecological value.

In 2023, the Costa Rican Tourism Institute recorded an impressive 2,751,134 visitors exploring Costa Rica’s diverse landscapes. The Middle Pacific area experienced remarkable demand, reaching 97% occupancy, while the South Pacific region saw a 68% occupancy rate, as reported by Tico Times.

Despite sharing similar characteristics, Costa Rica’s neighbors find themselves at different positions in the rankings. Panama, for instance, claims the No. 3 spot, but Nicaragua sits further down the list at No. 132.

The Philippines leads Southeast Asia, taking the No.2 spot. Thailand trails behind at No. 36, Indonesia at No. 43, and Vietnam at No. 131.

Denmark secures Europe’s highest position at No. 5, followed by Germany and Iceland. Most European nations are ranked between 11 and 60.

While Egypt, at No. 40, holds the highest rank among African countries, most African countries find themselves towards the lower end of the index.

The United States holds the No. 10 position.

Light at the End of the Tunnel

“It is a delicate balance protecting the environment and local communities, and ensuring tourism remains a positive influence on destinations,” says Ms. Bland.

She continues with saying that “carbon footprints of outdoor vacations tend to be much lower than hotel stays, not only because most people travel domestically by car rather than flying, but also thanks to renewable energy use, recycling levels, and a ‘slow food’ mindset, promoting local produce and low-impact activities like hiking in the vicinity, all at an accessible price.”

As people think about where to travel next, it is important to remember that choices matter. Traveling is not just about seeing new places but also respecting and preserving them so residents and travelers can continue to enjoy them. Making informed travel plans is a step in the right direction.


 

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